A while back I broke down the likely delegate splits in Oregon and in Kentucky, now I'll take a look at the remaining states West Virginia, Montana, and South Dakota.

I'll start with West Virginia, which has 28 delegates to award on May 13.  They break down as follows (from the Green Papers:

• 10 delegates by statewide total
• 7 At-Large delegates
• 3 PLEO delegates

• 18 district delegates
• 6 delegates to WV-01
• 6 delegates to WV-02
• 6 delegates to WV-03

Yesterday I gave Oregon a try, today I'll try Kentucky, which votes on the same day.

Kentucky has 51 pledged delegates to award on its May 20 contest.  They break down as follows (from the Green Papers:

• 17 delegates by statewide total
• 11 At-Large delegates
• 6 PLEO delegates

• 34 district delegates
• 5 delegates to KY-01
• 5 delegates to KY-02
• 8 delegates to KY-03
• 5 delegates to KY-04
• 5 delegates to KY-05
• 6 delegates to KY-06

Inspired by the comprehensive delegate predictions done for PA, NC, and IN, I'll try my hand at Oregon.

Oregon has 52 pledged delegates to award on its May 20 contest.  They break down as follows (from the Green Papers:

• 18 delegates by statewide total
• 12 At-Large delegates
• 6 PLEO delegates

• 34 district delegates
• 7 delegates to OR-01
• 5 delegates to OR-02
• 9 delegates to OR-03
• 7 delegates to OR-04
• 6 delegates to OR-05

Senator Frank Lautenberg (D-NJ) had retired in 2000, but came back in 2002 to hold the seat of Sen. Torricelli, who had sank under corruption charges.  Apparently Representative Rob Andrews (NJ-01) felt that Lautenberg would merely be a place-holder, who would again retire and open up the seat again, but Lautenberg surprisingly decided to run for another term.

Bad night for Hawaii Republicans.  Yes, they got their governor re-elected (which was never in doubt), but came up short in the open HI-02 seat by nearly 30%.  They didn't make a dent on Sen. Akaka, despite his popularity suffering since the vicious primary.  But the real disappointment for them has to be in the state legislature, where they seem set to at best break even, or possibly see their already limited numbers dwindle even further.

The Hawaii state Senate is comprised of 20 Democrats and 5 Republicans, and the state House has 41 Democrats and 10 Republicans.

2 open Senate seats (one from each party) were contested, and 10 House Democratic seats and 5 House Republicans seats were targeted.  The results, so far:

To the few remaining supporters of DINO Rep. Ed Case (HI-02), consider that the US Chamber of Commerce is running ads on his behalf in the Democratic Senate primary, where he is challenging incumbent progressive Sen. Dan Akaka.  My parents, both life-long registered Republicans who voted for Bush and Gov. Linda Lingle (R), received a call from the CoC praising Case's support of tax cuts (they neglect to mention "for the rich").  As far as I know, the only other Democratic Representative endorsed this year by the CoC is Melissa Bean (IL-08), whose conservative views on economics and tax issues have angered those who worked so hard to put her in office.  Bean, however, represents a district that voted 55% for Bush, while Case is running to the right in a strongly blue state.

It's been awhile since I last diaried the open Congressional seat in Hawaii's second district.  A lot has changed since then.  Duke Bainum (D), Mike Gabbard (R), and Peter Carlisle (potential R) never got in the race.  State Senator Clayton Hee (D), Honolulu City Councilman Nestor Garcia (D), and former state Representative Quentin Kawananakoa (R) jumped in.

More updates, as well as thoughts and predictions, in the extended entry:

It's official: Alaska Governor Frank Murkowski (R) just suffered one of the worst primary defeats ever, getting only 19% of the vote, coming in third to Sarah Palin (51%) and John Binkley (30%).  On the Democratic side, former governor Tony Knowles brushed past Eric Croft, winning 69-23%.  Knowles and Palin will face off in November, with former Republican Andrew Halcro running as an independant.

What does this have to do with marijuana?  Aside from Murkowski, the other five candidates all admitted to smoking marijuana.

Bad news for Maryland Senate hopefull Kweisi Mfume.  His fundraising is, well terrible for someone who actually is polling pretty well.

This past quarter's numbers:

Ben Cardin (D): raised $925,000, cash on hand $2,300,000

Kweisi Mfume (D): raised $135,000, cash on hand $171,000

Michael Steele (R): raised $1,800,000, cash on hand $3,000,000

Even minor candidates have more money than Mfume...

Allan Lichtman (D): cash on hand $265,000

Dennis Rasmussen (D): cash on hand $280,000

Josh Rales (D): unknown.  He's a millionaire who's pledged to spend...millions...on the race.

Fortunately, the Green candidate shouldn't be too much of a spoiler

Kevin Zeese (G): raised $12,200, cash on hand $16,000

As the NSA wiretapping scandal heats up, and rumors of Karl Rove's pending indictment swirl, a lot of election polls that would usually get frontpaged by themselves are not getting the attention they deserve.  Quite simply, there is a wave building, and the Republicans aren't going to know what hit them this fall.  Ladies and gentlemen, it's going to be our 1994.  Take a look at some of these recently released Senate and Governor polls.  Some of them are unbelievable.

Last month I diaried the politicians angling to replace Blue Dog Democratic Rep. Ed Case (HI-02), who is retiring after four years in the House to launch a suicidal primary challenge against Senator Daniel Akaka (D-HI).

Fundraising numbers have come out, and a the candidate field is mostly set.  Democrats have a massive free-for-all primary which will feature both a former gubernatorial candidate and her running mate, three state Senators and a state Representative.  Republicans have a state Senator and maybe a former state Represenative, and most worrisome, possibly the Honolulu Prosecutor.

Numbers in the extended entry:

Conservative Rep. Ed Case (D, HI-02) shook up Hawaii politics when he announced he would challenge the more liberal Sen. Akaka (D-HI) in a primary.  However, the real shakeup is not in the Senate primary (Akaka will easily crush Case), but in the race to get Case's House seat.  Five prominent Democrats are already running, with two more considering.  No prominent Republicans have committed yet, but two are considered possibilities.  In addition, one potentially strong candidate has yet to declare his party.  Here's an early look at the candidates, and the district itself:

Louisiana Lt. Governor Mitch Landrieu (D) will run against New Orleans Mayor Ray Nagin, in the election to be held on April 22.

Mitch Landrieu is the younger brother of Senator Mary Landrieu and the son of former New Orleans mayor Moon Landrieu.  Moon was the popular mayor from 1970-1978, and was well-respected for his anti-segregation positition while in the state House during the 60s.

Mitch followed his father (and his sister) in being elected to the state House, where he served from 1987 to 2003, after which he ran for New Orleans mayor.  He lost to Nagin, but then went on to win the Lt. Gov. race.

According to a new Rasmussen poll, Menendez leads Kean Jr. 38-34%, despite Menendez having lower favorables and higher unfavorables than Kean Jr.  Both have equal name recognition, at 51%.

Particularly, Menendez's favorables are 27-24%, while Kean Jr.'s are 35-16%.  Yet Menendez leads by 4% in a matchup.  All I can think to explain this is that the GOP's standing in blue states like New Jersey has crashed to radioactive status, and anyone with an R next to their name is going to have to run far away from Bush if they want to get elected.

Tayshea Aiwohi was convicted of manslaughter in the death of her newborn son after it was revealed that she had smoked methamphetamine during her pregnancy.  The case rallied the usual pro-choice and anti-abortion camps, with the former arguing that this sets a bad precedent for addicted mothers-to-be, who may be driven underground, while the latter claimed Aiwohi had murdered her child.  Furthermore, the question of how a woman could be prosecuted for the accidental death of her newborn, while abortion itself is legal, was argued.

Yesterday, the Hawaii Supreme Court overturned her conviction, ruling that women cannot be prosecuted for the death of their children caused by detrimental conduct during pregnancy.

Also, in a move that may upset other people, the court suggested that since a fetus is not defined as a person by the law, and a woman cannot be prosecuted for terminating her own pregnancy, it follows that a person who injures a pregnant woman and causes the death of her fetus cannot be charged with manslaughter or murder...

In their unending quest to save young adults from themselves, the West Virginia Alcohol Beverage Control Administration has taken it upon themselves to ban grain alcohol, joining at least a dozen other states that already ban the 190-proof alcohol, commonly sold under the brand name Everclear.

Not any specific incidents?  Well why the change then?

There are 28 states with Republican governors, and 22 states with Democratic governors, unchanged since 2003.

However, 2006 is looking to be a Democratic sweep, with as much as a +14 Democratic gain.

Stop saying it.  Please.  Nearly every time gay marriage comes up, someone proposes we just "drop" the issue (or actively campaign against it), because it supposedly doesn't play well with African-Americans, who are thought to be highly religious and thus anti-gay, although highly Democratic.  There is a justified concern about Republicans using such diversionary tactics to split the Democratic base, but our real problem is not that black people oppose gay marriage, it is that white people oppose gay marriage.

Statistics in the extended entry...