TX: The CAUCUS is the truer test.

As Elise diaried today, I am down in the heart of Texas--canvassing and making phone calls for Barack Obama.  I've already traveled--riding in the bed of a pickup truck on the interstate, no less--to a wide variety of areas here in Travis County to get out the vote (and caucus!) for Barack Obama this Tuesday.

I'm sure you've all seen the early voting numbers coming out of Texas--theyre impressive for sure.  Constable Bruce Elfant just told me today that in Travis County, 85% of the early vote cast in the primary is for the Democratic Primary.  Fantastic numbers, no doubt.  But the Democratic resurgence may not be the only reason.

The Pollster average shows Obama leading on average, but even though he leads in most polls and generally outperforms them, I'm still not convinced Obama will win the primary.  And I'm even more convinced that the Caucus is the truer test in Texas.

More below.

The fact is, Republicans are voting for Hillary in the primary election.  There's a whole bunch of anecdotal evidence for this, but it makes sense.  From Elise's diary quoted above:

I've been canvassing in TX today too

Been walking for 4 hrs and about to go out for some more. Just stopped in to make a comment/suggestion.

If you're making calls to TX PLEASE make sure to explain the caucus! I cannot emphasize this enough... I've been canvassing in the precinct my parents live in (very red area right outside of Austin) and only about 1 out of every 20 people I've talked to are Obama supporters (most are Ron Paul supporters and repubs for Clinton) but none of them (and I really mean none) knew anything about the caucus held after the primary until I told them. And all had been called at least once by an Obama supporter. If we want to win TX, we've got to get people to the caucus...

by ankey on Sun Mar 02, 2008 at 02:54:23 PM CST

I was just attending a precinct organizing meeting with Kath25, and one of the people there said it's not that the Republicans in his area aren't voting--it's that the Republicans in his area are voting for Clinton.  In case you didn't know, Rush Limbaugh has encouraged his listeners in Texas and Ohio to vote for Clinton because they're so scared of running against Obama that they'd vote for their worst enemy just to prevent him from winning the nomination.

Although it is impossible to quantify the number of Limbaugh Republicans who are crossing over to vote for Hillary in the primary because McCain can beat her in the general, it seems that this might be a significant  factor contributing to the fact that voting in the Democratic Primary is far outstripping voting in the Republican Primary by about 3-1.

In a close popular vote race, Limbaugh Republicans might be able to influence who wins the popular vote.  And while the popular vote, of course, doesn't determine who the nominee is--the delegate count coming from each Senate District does that, and Obama has the advantage there--it does matter as far as spin is concerned.

But if Republicans are trying to help Hillary win the general election, that also leads to one obvious conclusion: the caucus in Texas is the truer test of who Democrats in Texas want to be their nominee.

It is already the case that caucuses tend to be won by the candidate whose supporters are the most motivated to come out and wait in line in potentially freezing weather to support that candidate--and in all cases but New Mexico, that candidate has been Barack Obama.  Most of these caucuses have been absolute blowouts.

Now, Hillary likes to say that the caucuses shouldn't matter because they're "dominated by activists."  Now, it's my opinion that activists should have a better shot at determining who the party's nominee is than should low-information voters who vote for the person whose name they're heard before, but that's neither here nor there.

But now think about this: How many of the Limbaugh Republicans who are crossing over to vote for Hillary are actually going to CAUCUS for her afterward?  Not too many, I think.  And that signals one thing to me: that the caucus is the far better measure of whom actual Democrats want to be their nominee.

For all those who are complaining that independents shouldn't decide the Democratic nomination, I have one thing to say: Limbaugh Republicans who are out to sabotage the party shouldn't a fortiori.  And that is why I'll say again:

The Democratic Caucus is the truer measure of whom Texas Democrats support..