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Rasmussen NV poll: Obama +12 over McCain, Clinton -9

Fri Feb 15, 2008 at 03:28:20 PM PDT

I just wanted everyone to know about a Rasmussen poll I just came across that perfectly demonstrate why any superdelegates who are concerned about the strength of the Democratic nominee in the general election out to overwhelmingly go for Obama.

According to the Rasmussen poll linked to above, Obama beats McCain 50-38 in Nevada--one of the states that matter, according to Mark Penn!  At the same time, however, the same poll shows Hillary losing to McCain 49-40.

More information below.

The main point is this: independents will vote for McCain over Hillary, but when they have a choice between Obama and McCain, they will overwhelmingly lean toward Obama:

When matched against Clinton in Nevada, McCain enjoys a seven-point lead among unaffiliated voters. However, among those same voters, Obama leads McCain by thirty-two points.

These are voters that the Democratic Party desperately needs to identify with--not only for this election, but for future elections as well.  But it's not only that--Obama has crossover appeal to Republicans.  It's like he says in his speeches, except the poll numbers bear it out:

Not only that, McCain leads Clinton 76% to 11% among Republicans. However, when matched against Obama, his advantage with the GOP faithful is only 63% to 25%.

For Clinton, the numbers are exactly as feared: she has the highest negatives of any of the three candidates under discussion, and Obama has by far the highest positives:

Obama is viewed favorably by 59% of Nevada voters and unfavorably by 38%. McCain earns favorable reviews from 45% and unfavorable assessments from 53%. Clinton’s numbers are 41% favorable and 59% unfavorable.

The bottom line, as of now, is this: if Democrats are interested in winning states that they have come close in but not quite won lately, Obama will be the Democratic candidate who can win them.

I know that Rasmussen polls should be taken with a salt lick or two, but the huge disparity must reflect something, and is confirmed by other polls, such as this one which shows Obama beating McCain in Colorado, but McCain dominating Clinton.

For Democrats who want to beat McCain and win states like Colorado and Nevada, the choice is clear.  Here's hoping that voters in the subsequent primary states understand the point.

Tags: polls, John McCain, Barack Obama, Hillary Clinton, 2008, elections (all tags) :: Previous Tag Versions

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